Lee homers twice as Cubs down Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/02/2009 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrek Lee headlined a home run parade with two long-balls -- a three-run shot and a grand slam -- for a career-high seven RBI, leading the Chicago Cubs to a 9-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in the beginning of a crucial four-game series between the NL Central foes.

It was Lee's 20th career multi-homer game, as the Cubs won for the third time in four games. Jake Fox and Geovany Soto each hit a solo shot in a game that featured six total homers -- all in the first six innings.

Ryan Dempster (5-5) was the beneficiary of the run support, moving to 10-3 lifetime against Milwaukee after allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.

Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder each hit a home run for the Brewers, who have lost two in a row after winning four of their previous five. Seth McClung (3-2), in his second start of the year, was hammered for seven runs on seven hits with two walks and a strikeout in only 3 1/3 innings.

The Cubs got off to a quick start in the first. Sam Fuld drew a walk to lead off, Ryan Theriot followed with a single, and Lee scored everybody with a three-run homer to left for an early cushion.

Two batters later, Fox hit his fourth home run of the season for a 4-0 edge.

Cameron, though, answered for Milwaukee, blasting a two-run shot in the second to cut the Brewers' deficit in half.

To keep the home run parade going, Soto drilled his eighth of the year to lead off the fourth and give the Cubs a 5-2 lead.

Chicago blew the game wide open in the same frame thanks to more hot hitting from Lee. Following Soto's homer, Mike Fontenot and Fuld both singled, and Theriot walked, setting up Lee's grand slam to center for a commanding 9-2 advantage.

Fielder added to the home run tally with a leadoff shot in the sixth, pulling the Brewers to within 9-3. Ryan Braun produced the first non-homer run of the game with an RBI single in the seventh, although it still left Milwaukee down by five.

In the top of the eighth, with one out and Aaron Heilman pitching for Chicago, Cameron doubled, Corey Hart was hit by a pitch, and Jason Kendall grounded an RBI single through the left side of the infield for a 9-5 game.

Heilman limited the damage by retiring the next two hitters, and Carlos Marmol finished off the Brewers in the ninth.

Game Notes

Thursday marked the beginning of an 11-game homestand for the Cubs. They will also face Atlanta and St. Louis while at Wrigley Field...Chicago leads the season series, 4-3...Cameron finished 3-for-4, while Fielder was 2-for-4 for Milwaukee...Fuld and Theriot both had a pair of hits for Chicago...Since May 30, a span of 29 games, Lee is hitting .339 with nine homers and 29 RBI. He has 14 home runs total this season. It was his 10th career grand slam...Dempster earned his first win since May 30.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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