AZ out to play spoiler

Soccer Betting Lines

05/01/2009 - Enschede, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AZ Alkmaar's victory lap continues on Sunday when the club travels to Arke Stadion to meet second-placed Twente, which is in a heated battle for second place.

AZ clinched the Eredivisie title two weeks ago, and despite having no real incentive last week against third-placed Ajax, still held the Amsterdam side to a 1-1 draw.

Now, AZ will try to spoil Twente's hopes of finishing in second place and putting themselves into the qualifying round of the Champions League next season.

Twente enters the match having lost 1-0 to Feyenoord two weeks ago and then playing to a 1-1 draw with Heerenveen last time out.

But despite the club's recent struggles, manager Steve McClaren believes that his team is capable of taking all three points against the champions and that all of their hard work to this point will not go unrewarded.

"Back in August, if I said that Twente, at this stage of the season, would compete for awards, you would have said I was mad," McClaren said. "The team has gradually grown over the season and it is because of hard work that we are in this position."

"We know what we should do on Sunday and that is win," the manager said. "The game against Ajax showed that AZ are very good and that they can win. In this game, there will be many eyes on AZ, who would like to show that they are the best."

Ajax faces a less daunting task when they visit 14th-placed Sparta, who still is not safe from the bottom three.

Sparta is three points above 16th-placed Volendam, but they are running into a motivated Ajax team that needs three points to keep its Champions League hopes on track.

Marco Van Basten's side has also stumbled in the past two weeks, losing 6-2 to PSV Eindhoven two weeks ago before finishing 1-1 with AZ, prompting the manager to vent a bit of frustration after last week's draw.

"Last week we waisted a chance to overtake Twente and basically we did that again," Van Basten said. "Thankfully we still have control over what's going to happen."

The reason why Ajax still controls its own destiny is that Twente will visit Amsterdam Arena next week on the final day of the season, and as long as Ajax remains within touching distance, they will have a chance to clinch second place on home soil.

PSV hosts NEC with an eye towards wrapping up a top-four spot, while fifth- placed Heerenveen, which is two points back of PSV, entertains Den Haag.

Groningen has already secured a spot in the top eight, giving them a chance to pick up a European spot, and they will meet Volendam, while Feyenoord travels to Utrecht in a match that will go a long way towards determining who joins Groningen.

The relegation battle is still ongoing with Roda just one point from safety and hosting Willem II, while last-placed Graafschap travels to NAC just two points from safety and Heracles, which is three clear of the bottom three, visits Vitesse.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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